Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate? Part I: The Question

What follows is the first part of a three-part series which I am calling "Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate?" This will be an exploration of the validity of mock drafts. In "Part I: The Question," I will fill in the background leading to the question of the mock draft's relevance in the NFL. In "Part II: Data and Analysis," I will present the data which I have uncovered through extensive research of a few selections of last year's mock drafts and explain how the data reveals the accuracy of each mocker. And in the final part, entitled "Part III: The Truth," I will conclude the results of the examination. Let's begin.

PART I: THE QUESTION

Everybody is an expert these days. Mel Kiper, Jr. (pictured right) made it popular, and now everybody seems to be doing it. Mock drafts are the latest craze in what seems to be a never ending offseason for NFL fans. Once the last second ticks off the clock of the Super Bowl, the season ends (with the exception of the Pro Bowl), and we must wait yet another seven months to plan our Sundays around the television. In the meantime, football does not go into hibernation but disappears behind the closed doors of bargaining offices until the start of a new season.

During this hiatus, we speculate on the changes made to our favorite teams through free agency, trades, and the draft. The draft gives fans the opportunity to see if their teams' general managers and scouts are living up to their potential and increasing salaries by fulfilling teams' needs. But how do we really know for sure whether or not a player has the talent to make that walk to the podium on day one of the draft, hearing his name called as he shakes hands with and hugs his posse before donning the hat and jersey of his new team? How can we be sure where a player will place in the draft and with what team? Who determines the placement of these players?

As I mentioned before, everybody is an expert these days. Mel Kiper, Jr is the "official" draft expert in the NFL, and his mock drafts have been the "standard" to which most mock draftsmen aspire. As a result, the mock draft has quickly become one of the main ways in which fans can "predict" which player will be drafted by their teams. A lot of work goes into constructing these mocks, and writers work day and night to rate these players so that football fans can have all of the necessary information going into this major event; however, the question still remains:

Can you really see the future when looking at a mock draft, as if it is a crystal ball, or are those who compile these lists filling everyone full of hot air?

I seriously doubt that NFL head coaches, general managers, and scouts are sitting in the "war room" prior to selection with stacks of printouts from the DraftKing or Mel Kiper's page to determine which college standout will be their franchise running back. The simple fact is that mock drafts are meant for our entertainment. And when I say "our," I mean you and I, the general population of football fanatics. Let's face it, the casual fan doesn't read the latest three-round mock draft released by Huddlegeeks. Yet, someone has to hold the mock experts accountable. Let's begin our journey.

When examining five mock drafts from last year--Mel Kiper's mock draft, DraftKing, Football's Future, Sports Nutz, and NFL Draft Countdown--and comparing them to the results of the 2006 draft, we may find some interesting results. Although some mockers have only been brave enough to develop a first-round projection, others have published three-round mocks, and in Mel Kiper's case, a four-round mock. The modern day draft runs for seven rounds, although in it's advent in 1982, it was a 12-round event. Even today, constructing a seven-round mock draft would be quite an undertaking.

Photograph of Mel Kiper, Jr. taken from ESPN.com.

The Detroit Dilemma

With the draft approaching, Detroit Lions general manager Matt Millen and second year head coach Rod Marinelli have many decisions to make. Should they draft offense or defense? Are they looking for starters or depth at a certain position? But the question that will loom over their heads come draft day, if they should be put in the position to answer it, is:

If Calvin Johnson becomes available at number two overall, will the Detroit Lions draft another wide receiver?

Over the past five years, the Lions have drafted a wide receiver with three of their first round picks and an offensive player (RB Kevin Jones in 2004 and QB Joey Harrington in 2002) in four of those five years. If you want to go back further, the team has draft an offensive tackle the two years in a row previous to Harrington's arrival from Oregon. Only last year, under Marinelli, did they draft a defensive player, linebacker Ernie Sims. It seems that Matt Millen is a deer in the headlights when a top wide receiver flashes across the board. So, can the Lions' brass resist should Johnson become available to them at the second pick overall?

I am going to say "no"...with my fingers crossed behind my back.

The only wideout that seems to have worked out for the Lions is Roy Williams (pictured right). He's maintained his position with the Lions as their number one receiver and has shown flashes of dominance in being one of the top receivers in the NFL. Last year he caught 82 balls for 1,310 yards and seven touchdowns. But the other two top picks at wideout have not come close to Roy's dominance last year.

Mike Williams, drafted tenth overall, caught only 29 passes for 350 yards in his rookie campaign and just eight catches for 99 yards last year. He's never cracked the third spot on the depth charts and looks to be following fellow first round dud, Charles Rogers, out of town and into the unemployment line. Like Rogers, (Mike) Williams has had nothing but attitude clashes with the coaching staff and his underperformance in practice has kept him planted on the bench for gameday. For those reasons, the Lions should pass on drafting a wideout and look at offensive tackle, Joe Thomas.

At this last weekend's scouting combine at the RCA dome in Indianapolis, Joe Thomas (below, right) dazzled scouts with an exceptional performance. He ran the 40 yard dash in under five seconds, posting a 4.92. He showed great strength bench pressing 225 pounds 31 times. Thomas has not only had an impressive college career, but he has shown the strength and agility at the combine that an NFL starting tackle needs to compete in the modern game.


Calvin Johnson (above, left) was equally as impressive at the scouting combine this weekend. He timed out in the 40 yard dash at 4.35 seconds. What is more impressive is that Johnson did it in borrowed shoes. Initially, he was not going to run, but he then changed his mind and borrowed a pair of track shoes from another athlete. Johnson's size and strength is more than ideal for NFL teams, and when you package that with his skill and speed, you have the makings of a dominant wideout. But, then again, Lions fans have heard this story before.

As of now, all arrows point to Thomas. The Lions have released veteran tackle, Ross Verba, and appear to be clearing a roster spot for Thomas. If they hope to succeed in a passing attack constructed by "offensive genius" Mike Martz, they need to solidify their offensive line not add to a crowded receiver corps. If they have any hopes of keeping John Kitna off of his back for the 2007 season, they must address their issue with the line. Thomas makes sense at number two overall. However, considering Calvin Johnson's performance at the combine and their history of drafting receivers, I completely understand why Lions fans will be nervous when Detroit is on the clock and Johnson is still available.

Roy Williams picture taken from MSNBC.com.
Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas picture taken from ESPN.com.

The Six Degrees of Deion Sanders

Welcome to the first edition of a little game that I like to call, "The Six degrees of Deion Sanders." As you may have guessed, it is based off of the popular game, "The six degrees of Kevin Bacon." The rules are basically the same; however in this game, I will be selecting a player from a random draft year. I will then web my connections to get to Prime Time in six degrees or less. This will be a monthly installment that will probably appear sometime near the first week of every month.

I encourage comments from those who can make the connections in fewer degrees. The purpose of this game is to have a little fun, but also to learn a little about the history of the draft along the way through drawing connections between players, teams, coaches, and draft years. Without further adieu...

With the 118th pick in the 1993 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select...

Mark Brunell

1. Drafted in the 5th round by the Green Bay Packers out of the University of Washington, Mark Brunell became the backup of future Hall of Famer Brett Favre.

2. Brett Favre was drafted out of Southern Mississippi in the 2nd round, 33rd overall, by the Atlanta Falcons before being traded to the Green Bay Packers for a 1st round pick the following year. During his tenure with the Packers, Favre won only one Super Bowl ring. In Super Bowl XXI, on the second play of the game, Favre threw a 54-yard touchdown to wide receiver, and former Atlanta Falcon, Andre Rison.

3. Andre Rison was drafted out of Michigan State in the 1st round, 22nd overall, by the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts traded Rison and quarterback Chris Hinton (another 1st round pick, Denver Broncos in 1983) to the Atlanta Falcons. Rison played for the Falcons from 1990 to 1994. During his tenure with the Falcons, he was often covered in practices by the pro bowl cornerback, Deion Sanders, who was a member of the Falcons from 1989 to 1993.

4. And the circle is now complete in four degrees with Deion Sanders.

All information provided by Wikipedia.com.
Deion Sanders picture taken from blackathlete.com.