The Trade Winds are Blowing

Since the draft is in a few days, I wanted to address a couple of rumors about possible trades that could occur prior to, or on the day of, the draft. Some of these rumors may have been addressed by sports writers of major networks and magazines, such as ESPN or Sports Illustrated. I will briefly discuss those issues and add a few of my own "projections." These are in no particular order of importance. Here's a little comic that I came across to get us started:


1. The Oakland Raiders trade the number one overall pick to the Detroit Lions for either John Kitna or Josh McCown and the second overall pick in order to obtain a quarterback and to draft WR Calvin Johnson. The closer we get to the draft, this scenario is less likely. Al Davis does covet Johnson's abilities, but in the end, I think the Raiders will go with JaMarcus Russell.

2. The Detroit Lions trade down to secure help on defense or the offensive line and to add an additional pick so that they may address other needs later in the draft. I think this is a very likely scenario. As I've covered in three posts, so far, Detroit is faced with the problem of either taking Calvin Johnson (hold your snickering, please), taking Joe Thomas, taking Brady Quinn, or trading down to take the latter two so that teams like Tampa Bay or Atlanta can have a shot at drafting Calvin Johnson with the second pick. According to ESPN analysts, Tampa Bay has the best arsenal to accomplish this move. I hope that Detroit drafts Johnson (holding in an outburst of laughter), but in the end, I think that they will either take Quinn with the second pick or trade down and draft defensive help.

3. The Oakland Raiders trade WR Randy Moss (pictured, right) for a mid-round draft pick, use that pick to draft a quarterback to develop, and draft Calvin Johnson at number one overall. My take: Probably not. Nobody, I repeat, nobody will give that high of a pick for Moss. Even Green Bay, who loves the idea of a Moss-Favre connection, would not give up that high of a pick to obtain the shifty wide receiver.

4. The Chicago Bears trade Lance Briggs on draft day to a team panicking for defensive help and move higher up into the first round and obtain either another player or a middle to lower round pick. The Bears use the higher first round pick to draft a replacement for Briggs and the subsequent picks to draft best-value players. I think that the Bears are stuck with Briggs, or rather, Briggs is stuck with the Bears.

He will sit out the majority of the season grumbling and whining about not being treated fairly because they placed the franchise tag on him this year and made him the HIGHEST paid player on the team. Then, after sitting ten games, he'll tuck his tail between his legs and play out the remainder of the season, hoping that a solid finish will create interest for him in free agency. And THEN, the Bears will slap the franchise tag on him an additional year. Briggs will spontaneously combust due to extreme frustration and Brian Urlacher will once again lead the team in tackles, be considered be Defensive Player of the Year, and remain the second-highest paid player behind the ash and vapor remains of Lance Briggs.

5. The New England Patriots will trade down from the 28th pick overall to gain extra picks to address needs. I think this is false. New England has two first round picks and very few needs going into the draft. They signed OLB Adelius Thomas to bolster an already strong linebacking core. With two first round picks, they can address the secondary, add depth to the front seven, or add depth to their backfield, considering the offseason loss of Corey Dillon. Adding depth to their linebacking core and the secondary seems to be the most feasible scenario for New England. Junior Seau may not be back this year and Rodney Harrison is reach geriatric proportions. There's always a chance that head coach Bill Belichick will snatch another receiver, as well.

6. Wide receiver will constitute the position most drafted in the first round. True. Right now, Todd McShay has six receivers going in the first and Mel Kiper also has six in the first. DraftKing has five being taken in the first round and NFL Draft Countdown has four going in the initial round of the draft. Although the "non-professional" mock drafters have less wideouts being taken in the first round, I believe that there is trend in recent first round to draft more wide receivers than other position players because the NFL is trying to go to a more aerial oriented style of play. Fans don't like to watch games that end with a score of 6-3. Today's game is closer to the Arena Football League than the traditional game. Although most great coaches know that defense wins championships, there still are many coaches out there who love the idea of having guys who can blaze down the field. This year's draft class has a lot of talent at wideout.

7. There will be so many trades and shifting in draft positions in this years draft that Mel Kiper (pictured, right) will overload and explode, but his hair will remain intact. True with shades of gray. I don't think that there will be a lot of moving around by teams in terms of draft positions, but I do think that when the world ends in flurry of nuclear blasts, the only things that will remain on this planet will be cockroaches, Keith Richards, and Mel Kiper's hair.

Comic taken from blogs.rockymountainnews.com.
Picture of Randy Moss taken from www.raidersonline.org.
Picture of Mel Kiper taken from www.pregamelobby.com.

Oh Texans, My Texans

The question of whether Houston made the right choice in drafting Mario Williams (pictured, right) with last year's first pick in the draft was asked of me by a close friend. Hmm. the easy route to take would be to say, "No." However, there is a part of me that wants to defend the Texans by jumping on the conspiracy wagon. Well, maybe not defend them using these conspiracy theories, but at least entertain the possibilities, if only for the sake of argument. Maybe it's just that I am fascinated with the idea that there are forces operating behind the scenes that quietly control the outcome of many major issues. Yes, even in the sports world. And why not? Although much of what I'm about to discuss is a touchy subject with some people and there are some who may find offense in the nature of this subject, allow me first to offer the following disclaimer:

The opinions and ideas expressed in this piece do not constitute the whole or even a part of my beliefs in the matter. I only wish to broach this subject for entertainment purposes and to open the minds of my readers to the possibilities of the events that may or may not exist behind the camera's eye. While some of the ideas may seem offensive to some people, please understand that this subject is meant to foster thinking and open up a discourse for those who may wish to offer an opinion on the matter. I would like to encourage anyone with an opinion on this matter to freely express their opinions, however, I wish to state that tact and sensitivity is a prerequisite to such potential comments.

With that being said, let's get right down to the nitty gritty. There is an opinion floating around in space that the Houston Texans may have been coerced into taking defensive end Mario Williams with the first overall pick of the 2006 NFL Draft over running back Reggie Bush because the uncanny talent and potential for superstardom possessed by Bush could foster economic growth in the city of New Orleans after suffering from the horrible destruction that Hurricane Katrina (pictured, below) imposed upon the city.


The theory continues as such: Should the New Orleans Saints have the opportunity to draft Reggie Bush, the marketing potential of this young prospect could be unrivaled in the years to come. Bush could bring in sellout crowds to every Saints game, attract sponsors who would be willing to spend money promoting Bush and the Saints while Bush promotes their products, and the increase in attendance and spending due to fans flocking to catch a glimpse of Bush's talents on display in the Superdome could give a jolt to the businesses surrounding the stadium and, in turn, trickle out into the rest of the city. Simply put, an increase in money spent on the team and surrounding business by fans would be one of the major economic catalysts to aid in rebuilding the city of New Orleans. Save the Saints, save the city.

I agree. Wow! It's a pretty wild theory, to say the least. Imagine, the commissioner, owners of the Texans and the Saints, and other influential business and government leaders meeting in secret to rig the outcome of the draft. Given the crazy stuff that occurs daily in this world, this theory could be possible, except that there is one gaping hole in the whole shebang: What do the Texans get out of it? Reggie Bush (pictured, right) was clearly the best prospect of the draft, and the Texans couldn't pass him up because they had Dominick Davis in the backfield. If you could hand the ball off to Davis or Bush, who would you choose? Right. I thought so.

And even if the Texans coaching staff were apprehensive about parting ways with Davis to make room for Bush, let's consider the new trend sweeping through the NFL: The duel running back threat. Teams are starting to go to an attack that features two running backs of great talent that compliment each other and offer a change of pace that keeps defenses on their toes. There's even a specialist position created for short yardage situations that has almost rendered the fullback obsolete, or if anything, has relegated the position to a strictly blocking role.

To return to the issue at hand, what would the Texans gain by passing up on Bush for Williams? To be fair to Mario Williams, he was rated as a top talent in the draft. The Texans had a weak defense, and adding the speedy Mario Williams (4.73 40) would give them the help that they needed on the line. In case anyone is wondering, Mel Kiper gave the Texans a B+ for their selections in the draft, citing that "[he] would have taken Reggie Bush with the first overall pick. But [he] ha[s] to respect the pick of Mario Williams, especially if he's consistent from game to game." Sorry Mel, looks like you missed that one...at least based on last year's performance by the underachieving Williams.

So, is there merit to the conspiracy theory? I doubt it. That's for you to decide. I think that there's craziness everywhere in this world, even in sports. I would suggest that, in this case of craziness, the Texans simply made a mistake, and the Saints were waiting with a smile and open arms. Reggie Bush...come on down!

Picture of Mario Williams taken from www.foxsports.com.
Picture of the New Orleans Superdome taken from www.abc.net.
Picture of Reggie Bush taken from www.allposters.com.

Detroit Dilemna: To the Tick-Tock and Ya Don't Stop. Detroit's on the Click-Clock.

Trust me, it's hard to sit here and type these words onto the screen and keep a straight face. Like me, there are many sports writers out there who are giddy over the possibility that Detroit will take Calvin Johnson with the second pick overall in the draft. We don't want them to take Johnson because he is the best talent of all the players in the draft. We don't want them to take Johnson because Detroit has needs to fill at wide receiver (which they don't). We don't want them to take Johnson because he would be a good example for Mike Williams, who can't seem to get it through his head that the NFL is not a dog and pony show where he can use the hype of his alleged skills as a talented receiver to reach superstardom.

We want the circus.

We want to jump and shout and cheer when new commissioner, Roger Goodell, addresses the podium and recites these words: "With the second pick in the two-thousand and seven NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions select Calvin Johnson." We want to talk about this more than the eventual circus that will surround the alleged Michael Vick dog fight scandal. We want to collectively shout, "I knew it! They couldn't resist!" Of course, there are scenarios that suggest otherwise.

Although the Lions have shored up their offensive line with addition of lineman George Foster in the Dre Bly trade with the Broncos, they still need playmakers on the line. Wisconsin tackle, Joe Thomas, could fill that void and help protect Kitna while blocking for the plethora of running backs in Tatem Bell, Kevin Jones, and T. J. Duckett. The Lions have enough talent at the running back position to help out Kitna, who threw for over 4,000 yards last season under the direction of new offensive coordinator, Mike Martz, the mad genius of offensive schemes. With a little protection and a running game, it is conceivable that Kitna could have another big year. After all, Martz is known for his ability to work with quarterbacks, ala Kurt Warner, Trent Green, Mark Bulger, and arguably, Ryan Fitzpatrick (who showed flashes of playmaking ability). With Thomas anchoring the line, Martz and company could wreak havoc in the NFC Central.

Another possible scenario is that Detroit could work out a trade with Oakland. They could trade Josh McCown or John Kitna and the second pick overall pick for Oakland's number one pick. Oakland would then have a quarterback and be free to draft Calvin Johnson, a player that Al Davis is foaming at the mouth to have on his team. Detroit could then draft LSU's golden boy quarterback, JaMarcus Russell. I'm sure Lions fans would be happy to have a franshise quarterback like Russell sit behind Kitna or McCown for a short spell while being tutored by Mad Martz to be the future poster boy of his new version of the "greatest show on turf."

Detroit could also trade down from the second pick and draft a defensive back to address the loss of Dre Bly, or they could pick up DE Gaines Adams of Clemson. Then, they could use their second-round pick on a quarterback (Trent Edwards of Stanford). They could also trade down a couple of spots from second overall pick and draft quarterback Brady Quinn, who I'm sure Martz would love to have on his offense. That is, if Cleveland doesn't pass up Adrien Peterson and snatch him up.

Detroit could also get flustered by all of these choices, and in the heat of indecision, forget to make a pick as time runs out, prompting boos and chuckles from the crowd and a two day riot by citizens of Detroit, in which they hang voodoo pin-stuck dummies resembling Matt Millen from the lamp posts surrounding Ford Field. (This is the least likely of scenarios, although, I'm sure a FIREMATTMILLEN.com website would be promptly loaded onto the internet.)

I don't know about any of you, but once Oakland selects JaMarcus Russell and Goodell announces that "the Detroit Lions are now on the clock," I'm going to be out of my seat and chanting, "Johnson, Johnson, Johnson!" And, in my heart, I know that you will, too.

The Six Degrees of Deion Sanders - April

I wanted to take another approach in the selection process since I've been connecting random players to Sanders too easily. I couldn't determine if it was just dumb luck or I wasn't challenging myself. Here's my new method: I called up my father (an avid sports fan) and asked him a question. My question took rigorous research and analysis. I combed the far regions of this world just to find the secret to uncovering the beginning to this question. Then, I spent hours deciphering what I uncovered, and when I felt that I was ready, I dialed the numbers.

"Dad," I said. "Who do you think would be a difficult player to link up to Deion Sanders if you had to do it in six degrees of separation or less?"

Immediately, he responded, "It's easy to go back to the past and make it connect to the present. But what is difficult is trying to take something ahead of the time of your subject of study and bring it into that past. Simply put, try connecting a player who came into the league after Prime Time and work backwards in your connection process. That should prove difficult."

Ok, I lied. He didn't really say that. But it sounds a whole lot better than, "I don't know...Tom Brady?" So, without further adieu, with the 199th pick overall in the 6th round of the 2000 NFL draft, the New England Patriots select:

QB, Tom Brady
University of Michigan

1. Drafted in 2000, Tom Brady found himself beginning the season as a backup for starting quarterback Drew Bledsoe. Bledsoe was injured on September 23rd of 2002 when New York Jets linebacker Mo Lewis slammed into his leg. The second-year pro, Tom Brady, took the helm and never looked back. Unfortunately, in the AFC championship, Brady suffered an injury of his own, and, for a game, Bledsoe regained the starting job, elevating the Patriots to the Super Bowl. Brady healed up by game time on Super Sunday and led the Patriots to victory over the St. Louis Rams on .

One question you might ask is: How did Brady become the number two quarterback after being drafted in the sixth round. Well, he started as the team's number three. In training camp, he outperformed Damon Huard to earn the number two spot behind Bledsoe. The rest is history.

2. Damon Huard was drafted by the Miami Dolphins in 1997 out of the University of Washington. He played for the Dolphins until 2001 when he was signed by the Patriots. He lost out on the number two spot behind Bledsoe to Brady, and when Brady the Pats to victory in the Super Bowl, Huard spent two more seasons as Brady's backup before moving on to Kansas City in 2004. He served as Trent Green's backup until last season when Green was hurt, and he gained the starting job.

When he joined the team in 2004, the lead running back for KC was Preist Holmes, who was coming off a record breaking year with the most rushing touchdowns in a season. Holmes was injured in 2004 and Larry Johnson took over as the starting tailback. Before Holmes joined the Chiefs in 2001, he was the running back for the Baltimore Ravens from 1997 to 2000. Playing for the Ravens on the other side of the ball was middle linebacker, Ray Lewis.

3. Ray Lewis was drafted by the Ravens in 1996 out of the University of Miami with the 26th pick overall in the first round. He is entering his 12th season in the NFL with the Ravens. In his ninth season in pro football, and with the help of cornerback and fellow defenseman, Corey Fuller, Lewis recruited a cornerback to help the team on defense. That man, who came out of three years retirement, was none other than Deion Sanders.

4. And with the fourth degree, we reach Neon Deion, once again.

Photo taken from www.bobbyworks.com

Seventh-Round Sleepers

I dedicate this post to those who were overlooked on the first day of the draft, those whose number was not called until the final round, leaving them to sweat it out and wonder whether they will ever be drafted to play in the NFL. These are the warriors who were only counted on to be a body, a developmental player, good enough to compete for a spot buried in the depth charts, the special teams contributors and the injury relief. The most recent player to breakthrough to a starting position, to impact his team in such a way that would inspire fans, players, and front office personnel alike to say, "How did they miss that one?"

Marques Colston (pictured, left) is the most recent last-round phenom to stump the critics. He was drafted out of Hofstra in the 252nd position overall, fourth from the last player picked in the 2006 draft. He was criticized for his lack of explosiveness coming out of a route. Also, some say that he had a hard time making defenders miss after the catch. Coming from a small school did not help Colston's prospects, either.

To be fair to Colston, most scouts thought he would convert to tight-end in the NFL because of his size and his 4.5 40 time being average for a receiver. Not many predicted that he would make it as a receiver in the pros. the concern for his lack of explosiveness is considered by some to be the top evaluation factor for wide receivers. The problem today is that many wide receivers working out in the combine and during pro days are plagued with the stigma of 40 times. For some reason, a players 40 time has become the high fashion. Many team owners and coaches, particularly Al Davis, are enamored with a receiver who can blaze down the field past defenders, i.e. Randy Moss, and make the long catch. Unfortunately, not all cornerbacks are as slow as some might things and not all receivers are as good of a "ball catcher on the run," either. For a wide receiver to be productive in the NFL, speed is important but not essential. Good route-running skills, explosiveness, and the ability to adjust to the ball in the air are far better qualities to have than track star sprinting toward the end zone. Obviously, defenses would adjust to constant bombs thrown toward the endzone and play their defensive backs deeper in the formation. In this situation, quarterbacks need receivers who can separate from defenders and "go up and get it" should they need to throw a ball into the middle of the field. Colston was mis-evaluated and showed that he could do all of the things necessary to be a starter.

Another last-round hero is T. J. Houshmandzadeh (pictured, right) of the Cincinnati Bengals. Houshmandzadeh was drafted 204th overall out of Oregon State. He now is the number two receiver behind Chad Johnson and has enjoyed three straight seasons with over 900 yards receiving. Another seventh-round receiver-done-good is Donald Driver of the Green Bay Packers. Driver was drafted 213th overall has had 4 1,000 yard seasons with the Packers as one of Brett Favre's go-to-guys. Drafted in the same round and year as Driver is Hunter Smith, punter for the Indianapolis Colts. Smith has been named a Pro Bowl alternate twice is considered one of the best punters in the NFL.

Alfonso Boone, DT, and Mike Green, SS, were formerly starting teammates with the Chicago Bears. Boone recently signed a contract with the Kansas City Chiefs to be one of their starting defensive tackles, while Green now plays for the Seattle Seahawks. Both were drafted as the last two picks overall in the 2000 draft.

As it can be seen, some players do slip through the cracks, be it because of scouts' prejudices, playing at a small school, or miscalculations. There are some late-round players that go on to have extraordinary and long careers in the NFL. While the tendency has been for receivers to be misdiagnosed come draft day, there have been other position players that have enjoyed great careers. This just goes to show...The experts aren't always right.

Picture of Marques Colston taken from happynews.com.

Picture of T. J. Houshmandzadeh taken from SportsIllustrated.com.

Revisiting the Detroit Dilemna

There have been some updates in the Detroit Dilemma over the past couple of weeks. It appears that Detroit could be looking to address different needs and not draft Calvin Johnson with the second overall pick in this year's draft. They have recently traded troublesome cornerback Dre Bly (pictured, right) to the Denver Broncos for fumbling running back Tatem Bell, offensive lineman George Foster, and a fifth-round pick.

By trading Bly, the Lions have addressed a couple of needs: They have a strong backfield in Bell and Kevin Jones; they fill a need at offensive tackle, and pick up an extra pick which they could use to bolster their defensive backfield with the absence of Bly. Previously, many mock drafts had projected the Lions to take highly-touted offensive tackle Joe Thomas with the second overall pick, but now that they have Foster, many have updated their mocks to show the Lions taking Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn.

Another thing to consider is that Detroit has also signed free agent T. J. Duckett, formerly of the Washington Redskins, to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million. With Duckett assuming the role as a short yardage and third-down back, it is conceivable that the Lions could switch Duckett to fullback and implement a one-two punch of Bell and Jones. Certainly, this would create many mismatches for defenses that should have Mike Martz licking his chops come gameday.

With the many offensive weapons in place, Martz/Marinelli/Millen could be looking to use the second overall pick to add depth to the offensive line, draft a franchise quarterback, or trade down and address holes at cornerback and other spots. Still, everyone has to be chomping at the bit when Detroit is on the clock and Calvin Johnson is available, because it looks as if Oakland will select JaMarcus Russell (below, right) with the first pick in the draft, especially after the outstanding combine performance and exceptional pro day he has had going into the draft. Russell's draft stock couldn't be higher.

He possesses the size and arm strength that Al Davis covets in the passing game as well as ability to make things happen with his legs. Although Brady Quinn (above, left) has had the benefit of being mentored by Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weiss, a former NFL offensive coordinator for the three-time Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, most scouts consider Russell to be the better prospect.

Photograph of Dre Bly taken from broncos.scout.com.
Photograph of Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell taken from ESPN.com.

Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate? Part III: The Truth

This is the final installment of the truth behind mock drafts: Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate? Part III: The Truth. In this post, I plan to take the results of Part II and reveal the truth behind mock draft accuracy. Here are some questions to consider:

1. How accurate can one predict the results of the draft?
2. Are the experts really experts?
3. From where do these mockers get their data?

To recap the results of the first round "mock-off," we find that Mel Kiper fell short of proving his mettle as the draft guru of the modern era. While his top ten choices have been very accurate, his crystal ball vision becomes clouded beyond this point. To not strictly pick on Mel Kiper, other mockers have fallen short of achieving supreme status as the Swami of draft day. Although most of the other mockers that I examined were more accurate than Kiper, they didn't show much esteem in regards to their overall accuracy. In fact, it is my opinion that most of them use Mel Kiper as a primary source, and then deviate by degree to secure their original stamp on their mocks.

I have noticed trends in some of the picks in the first and in the second round that indicate that they could be peaking at Kiper's draft sheet on test day. It seems highly unlikely that Winston Justice of USC going to the Philadelphia Eagles with the 14th pick, when, in fact, Philadelphia had just as much of a pressing need at other positions, especially with Terrell Owens forcing himself out of town because of his usual antics.

What I can conclude is this: There is no accurate way to predict the outcome of the draft. The evidence shows that mock drafters have a better success rate with the first ten picks, but after this point, they should let the outcome settle itself. Some teams have too many needs, but they don't always draft players according to their needs. Amongst other teams, the Chicago Bears GM, Jerry Angelou, has repeatedly said that they draft the best player on the board. Many teams like to address needs in free agency. Also, there are trades that occur on draft day, heck, they occur before and after, and this makes it almost impossible to predict with supreme accuracy where potential draftees will end up and with what team for which they will play.

All in all, there are just too many factors that can influence the outcome of the draft; however this does not stop mock drafters from developing their mocks, and it does not stop fans from reading them. To put it plainly, mocks drafts are not tools to predict the draft, they are forms of entertainment. They are just another creative way to pull more fans into professional football. They are a bridge that unites the pros with college sports--football, baseball, basketball, and hockey. It just so happens that the NFL and the NBA drafts are the most publicized. So, when the third weekend of April come around, leave your mock draft printouts at the computer desk, if you are looking for the Truth.

Six Degrees of Deion Sanders - March

Prime-Time, Prime Time...it's another installment of everybody's favorite game: "The Six Degrees of Deion Sanders. I've decided to go a bit further back into history to see if I can find a random player from a late round in an old draft. I am hoping this will pose more of a challenge than last month's attempt.

Since Deion arrived in the NFL in 1989, I will go back four more years to 1985 and choose a player that was drafted out of Deion's rival school from college. Deion attended Florida State, whose rival is the University of Miami.

A side note: It is interesting that rookie phenom Devin Hester of the Chicago Bears and former Miami Hurricane is the protegee of Deion Sanders.

Let's start the game. With the 206th pick in the eighth round of the 1985 draft, the New Orleans Saints select:

ILB, Joe Kohlbrand
University of Miami

1. Joe Kohlbrand played with the New Orleans Saints from 1985 to 1989. He did not play for any other team and retired in 1989 after a disappointing career. Kohlbrand helped fortify the front seven of the Saints along with fellow linebacker and Hall of Famer Ricky Jackson of Pittsburgh University.

2. Ricky Jackson spent the majority of his career with the Saints (1982-93) and a couple of years with the San Francisco 49ers (1994-95). In 1994, he helped the Niners win the Super Bowl, his only ring. A member of that championship defense that recorded an interception in the Super Bowl win over the San Diego Chargers was Deion Sanders.

3. With the third degree, we return to our old pal, Neon Deion.

Photograph of Deion Sanders taken from ostatus.com.

Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate? Part II: Data and Analysis

PART II: DATA AND ANALYSIS

When considering the question of whether mock drafts are an accurate prediction of the the way the NFL draft will play out, one must keep in mind that accuracy is the key. There are many factors to take into consideration when determining which player will be drafted by which team and when. One player's talent may project him over another player, but there are other factors, such as: injuries, NFL teams' needs, combine and pro day performances, college resume, and interview results. This can be so confusing that mock draft designers' prediction accuracy may suffer. Also, not every mocker has access to all of this information, which places sports writers at a considerable advantage.

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the experts are truly more accurate than the novice mockers and to discover exactly how accurate these mock drafts are in predicting the results of the draft. To save time and space, I am going to post links to each website and analyze sections of data.

I will be fair with draft analysts in my measure of their accuracy. Since there are hundreds of players drafted every year and each team determines what their needs are in the draft (not the writers and analysts), I will grant a three-position margin of error. What that means is that I will accept a prediction of a player's position in the draft within three picks of his actual draft position. It is true (as I stated above) that teams determine their own needs, but mock draft designers should be taking every possible scenario (within reason) into consideration when constructing their mock drafts.

I will grade predictions based upon first round results for all five candidates, and I will grade three candidate who chose to be more adventurous in creating a three round mock draft. I will examine the predictions of only last year's draft with the exception that I will test Mel Kiper's mocking accuracy over the last three years. The point assignment for each position prediction per the results will break down as follows:

4 pts = accurate prediction
3 pts = within 1 position
2 pts = within 2 positions
1 pt = within 3 positions

Considering that there are 32 teams (32 draft positions per round), there are 128 points possible for every round. Since teams trade out of positions, I will award half credit to those who pick the team's correct draft choice even though it is out of position in the order unless the original point value is higher. Unfortunately, since predicting a team's desire to trade up or down in the draft is almost impossible, mockers cannot be held too accountable.

The Round Accuracy Rating (RAR) is computing simply by dividing the mocker's amount of points accumulated by the total number of points available per round.

FIRST ROUND MOCK DRAFTS

Mel Kiper, Jr.

To begin with the "expert," Mel Kiper, Jr's mock draft on ESPN.com is considered the most reputable of all mock drafts. Mel's extensive experience with college football and the NFL draft has made him the premier draft analyst in football. Mel's last mock draft of 2006 posted a first round RAR of 29.69%. He scored a 38 points out of the possible 128.

DraftKing

Next, we come to DraftKing. The final mock draft of 2006 for DraftKing posted a RAR of 36.72%. The score was 47 points out of 128. This score was the second best of the five first round mock drafts rated.

NFL Draft Countdown

NFL Draft Countdown posted the best score of the five mocks. More accurate middle round projections boosted this site's score to 51 out of 128 for a RAR of 39.84%.

Football's Future

The site that tied with Mel Kiper in predicting the draft results is Football's Future. Along with Kiper, this site posted the second lowest score at 38 points with a RAR of 29.69%.

Sports Nutz

Sports Nutz posted the lowest score of the mocks at 37 of 128 for a RAR of 28.9%. Although this site is not backed by as reputable analysts as those from ESPN, they were only one point behind the great Mel Kiper, Jr.

THREE-ROUND MOCK DRAFTS

Mel Kiper, Jr.

For the 2006 NFL Draft, Mel Kiper constructed a four-round mock draft. For the purpose of this study, I am going to examine the results of only three rounds. As noted above, Kiper posted an RAR of 29.69% for the first round. In the second round, Kiper scored 12 of 128 possible points (9.38% RAR), and in the third round he scored 3 of a possible 132 (2.27% RAR). The third round included a compensatory pick allotted to the New York Jets at 97th overall.

NFL Draft Countdown

Draft Countdown, in the second round, scored 10 points of 128 (7.81% RAR), and in the third round, the site scored 6 of 132 points (4.54% RAR). Draft Countdown scored lower than Kiper in the second round but beat him out in the third round.

Football's Future

The final three-round mock draft to examine is Football's Future. In the second round, FF scored 5 of 128 points (3.9% RAR), and in the third round, they scored 9 of 132 points (6.82% RAR). FF had the best results in the third round but fell short with the worst second round.


Now that the results are in, I will use the third part of this examination to comment on similarities, differences, tendencies, etc. Stay tuned...

Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate? Part I: The Question

What follows is the first part of a three-part series which I am calling "Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate?" This will be an exploration of the validity of mock drafts. In "Part I: The Question," I will fill in the background leading to the question of the mock draft's relevance in the NFL. In "Part II: Data and Analysis," I will present the data which I have uncovered through extensive research of a few selections of last year's mock drafts and explain how the data reveals the accuracy of each mocker. And in the final part, entitled "Part III: The Truth," I will conclude the results of the examination. Let's begin.

PART I: THE QUESTION

Everybody is an expert these days. Mel Kiper, Jr. (pictured right) made it popular, and now everybody seems to be doing it. Mock drafts are the latest craze in what seems to be a never ending offseason for NFL fans. Once the last second ticks off the clock of the Super Bowl, the season ends (with the exception of the Pro Bowl), and we must wait yet another seven months to plan our Sundays around the television. In the meantime, football does not go into hibernation but disappears behind the closed doors of bargaining offices until the start of a new season.

During this hiatus, we speculate on the changes made to our favorite teams through free agency, trades, and the draft. The draft gives fans the opportunity to see if their teams' general managers and scouts are living up to their potential and increasing salaries by fulfilling teams' needs. But how do we really know for sure whether or not a player has the talent to make that walk to the podium on day one of the draft, hearing his name called as he shakes hands with and hugs his posse before donning the hat and jersey of his new team? How can we be sure where a player will place in the draft and with what team? Who determines the placement of these players?

As I mentioned before, everybody is an expert these days. Mel Kiper, Jr is the "official" draft expert in the NFL, and his mock drafts have been the "standard" to which most mock draftsmen aspire. As a result, the mock draft has quickly become one of the main ways in which fans can "predict" which player will be drafted by their teams. A lot of work goes into constructing these mocks, and writers work day and night to rate these players so that football fans can have all of the necessary information going into this major event; however, the question still remains:

Can you really see the future when looking at a mock draft, as if it is a crystal ball, or are those who compile these lists filling everyone full of hot air?

I seriously doubt that NFL head coaches, general managers, and scouts are sitting in the "war room" prior to selection with stacks of printouts from the DraftKing or Mel Kiper's page to determine which college standout will be their franchise running back. The simple fact is that mock drafts are meant for our entertainment. And when I say "our," I mean you and I, the general population of football fanatics. Let's face it, the casual fan doesn't read the latest three-round mock draft released by Huddlegeeks. Yet, someone has to hold the mock experts accountable. Let's begin our journey.

When examining five mock drafts from last year--Mel Kiper's mock draft, DraftKing, Football's Future, Sports Nutz, and NFL Draft Countdown--and comparing them to the results of the 2006 draft, we may find some interesting results. Although some mockers have only been brave enough to develop a first-round projection, others have published three-round mocks, and in Mel Kiper's case, a four-round mock. The modern day draft runs for seven rounds, although in it's advent in 1982, it was a 12-round event. Even today, constructing a seven-round mock draft would be quite an undertaking.

Photograph of Mel Kiper, Jr. taken from ESPN.com.

The Detroit Dilemma

With the draft approaching, Detroit Lions general manager Matt Millen and second year head coach Rod Marinelli have many decisions to make. Should they draft offense or defense? Are they looking for starters or depth at a certain position? But the question that will loom over their heads come draft day, if they should be put in the position to answer it, is:

If Calvin Johnson becomes available at number two overall, will the Detroit Lions draft another wide receiver?

Over the past five years, the Lions have drafted a wide receiver with three of their first round picks and an offensive player (RB Kevin Jones in 2004 and QB Joey Harrington in 2002) in four of those five years. If you want to go back further, the team has draft an offensive tackle the two years in a row previous to Harrington's arrival from Oregon. Only last year, under Marinelli, did they draft a defensive player, linebacker Ernie Sims. It seems that Matt Millen is a deer in the headlights when a top wide receiver flashes across the board. So, can the Lions' brass resist should Johnson become available to them at the second pick overall?

I am going to say "no"...with my fingers crossed behind my back.

The only wideout that seems to have worked out for the Lions is Roy Williams (pictured right). He's maintained his position with the Lions as their number one receiver and has shown flashes of dominance in being one of the top receivers in the NFL. Last year he caught 82 balls for 1,310 yards and seven touchdowns. But the other two top picks at wideout have not come close to Roy's dominance last year.

Mike Williams, drafted tenth overall, caught only 29 passes for 350 yards in his rookie campaign and just eight catches for 99 yards last year. He's never cracked the third spot on the depth charts and looks to be following fellow first round dud, Charles Rogers, out of town and into the unemployment line. Like Rogers, (Mike) Williams has had nothing but attitude clashes with the coaching staff and his underperformance in practice has kept him planted on the bench for gameday. For those reasons, the Lions should pass on drafting a wideout and look at offensive tackle, Joe Thomas.

At this last weekend's scouting combine at the RCA dome in Indianapolis, Joe Thomas (below, right) dazzled scouts with an exceptional performance. He ran the 40 yard dash in under five seconds, posting a 4.92. He showed great strength bench pressing 225 pounds 31 times. Thomas has not only had an impressive college career, but he has shown the strength and agility at the combine that an NFL starting tackle needs to compete in the modern game.


Calvin Johnson (above, left) was equally as impressive at the scouting combine this weekend. He timed out in the 40 yard dash at 4.35 seconds. What is more impressive is that Johnson did it in borrowed shoes. Initially, he was not going to run, but he then changed his mind and borrowed a pair of track shoes from another athlete. Johnson's size and strength is more than ideal for NFL teams, and when you package that with his skill and speed, you have the makings of a dominant wideout. But, then again, Lions fans have heard this story before.

As of now, all arrows point to Thomas. The Lions have released veteran tackle, Ross Verba, and appear to be clearing a roster spot for Thomas. If they hope to succeed in a passing attack constructed by "offensive genius" Mike Martz, they need to solidify their offensive line not add to a crowded receiver corps. If they have any hopes of keeping John Kitna off of his back for the 2007 season, they must address their issue with the line. Thomas makes sense at number two overall. However, considering Calvin Johnson's performance at the combine and their history of drafting receivers, I completely understand why Lions fans will be nervous when Detroit is on the clock and Johnson is still available.

Roy Williams picture taken from MSNBC.com.
Calvin Johnson and Joe Thomas picture taken from ESPN.com.

The Six Degrees of Deion Sanders

Welcome to the first edition of a little game that I like to call, "The Six degrees of Deion Sanders." As you may have guessed, it is based off of the popular game, "The six degrees of Kevin Bacon." The rules are basically the same; however in this game, I will be selecting a player from a random draft year. I will then web my connections to get to Prime Time in six degrees or less. This will be a monthly installment that will probably appear sometime near the first week of every month.

I encourage comments from those who can make the connections in fewer degrees. The purpose of this game is to have a little fun, but also to learn a little about the history of the draft along the way through drawing connections between players, teams, coaches, and draft years. Without further adieu...

With the 118th pick in the 1993 NFL Draft, the Green Bay Packers select...

Mark Brunell

1. Drafted in the 5th round by the Green Bay Packers out of the University of Washington, Mark Brunell became the backup of future Hall of Famer Brett Favre.

2. Brett Favre was drafted out of Southern Mississippi in the 2nd round, 33rd overall, by the Atlanta Falcons before being traded to the Green Bay Packers for a 1st round pick the following year. During his tenure with the Packers, Favre won only one Super Bowl ring. In Super Bowl XXI, on the second play of the game, Favre threw a 54-yard touchdown to wide receiver, and former Atlanta Falcon, Andre Rison.

3. Andre Rison was drafted out of Michigan State in the 1st round, 22nd overall, by the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts traded Rison and quarterback Chris Hinton (another 1st round pick, Denver Broncos in 1983) to the Atlanta Falcons. Rison played for the Falcons from 1990 to 1994. During his tenure with the Falcons, he was often covered in practices by the pro bowl cornerback, Deion Sanders, who was a member of the Falcons from 1989 to 1993.

4. And the circle is now complete in four degrees with Deion Sanders.

All information provided by Wikipedia.com.
Deion Sanders picture taken from blackathlete.com.