Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate? Part III: The Truth

This is the final installment of the truth behind mock drafts: Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate? Part III: The Truth. In this post, I plan to take the results of Part II and reveal the truth behind mock draft accuracy. Here are some questions to consider:

1. How accurate can one predict the results of the draft?
2. Are the experts really experts?
3. From where do these mockers get their data?

To recap the results of the first round "mock-off," we find that Mel Kiper fell short of proving his mettle as the draft guru of the modern era. While his top ten choices have been very accurate, his crystal ball vision becomes clouded beyond this point. To not strictly pick on Mel Kiper, other mockers have fallen short of achieving supreme status as the Swami of draft day. Although most of the other mockers that I examined were more accurate than Kiper, they didn't show much esteem in regards to their overall accuracy. In fact, it is my opinion that most of them use Mel Kiper as a primary source, and then deviate by degree to secure their original stamp on their mocks.

I have noticed trends in some of the picks in the first and in the second round that indicate that they could be peaking at Kiper's draft sheet on test day. It seems highly unlikely that Winston Justice of USC going to the Philadelphia Eagles with the 14th pick, when, in fact, Philadelphia had just as much of a pressing need at other positions, especially with Terrell Owens forcing himself out of town because of his usual antics.

What I can conclude is this: There is no accurate way to predict the outcome of the draft. The evidence shows that mock drafters have a better success rate with the first ten picks, but after this point, they should let the outcome settle itself. Some teams have too many needs, but they don't always draft players according to their needs. Amongst other teams, the Chicago Bears GM, Jerry Angelou, has repeatedly said that they draft the best player on the board. Many teams like to address needs in free agency. Also, there are trades that occur on draft day, heck, they occur before and after, and this makes it almost impossible to predict with supreme accuracy where potential draftees will end up and with what team for which they will play.

All in all, there are just too many factors that can influence the outcome of the draft; however this does not stop mock drafters from developing their mocks, and it does not stop fans from reading them. To put it plainly, mocks drafts are not tools to predict the draft, they are forms of entertainment. They are just another creative way to pull more fans into professional football. They are a bridge that unites the pros with college sports--football, baseball, basketball, and hockey. It just so happens that the NFL and the NBA drafts are the most publicized. So, when the third weekend of April come around, leave your mock draft printouts at the computer desk, if you are looking for the Truth.