Seventh-Round Sleepers

I dedicate this post to those who were overlooked on the first day of the draft, those whose number was not called until the final round, leaving them to sweat it out and wonder whether they will ever be drafted to play in the NFL. These are the warriors who were only counted on to be a body, a developmental player, good enough to compete for a spot buried in the depth charts, the special teams contributors and the injury relief. The most recent player to breakthrough to a starting position, to impact his team in such a way that would inspire fans, players, and front office personnel alike to say, "How did they miss that one?"

Marques Colston (pictured, left) is the most recent last-round phenom to stump the critics. He was drafted out of Hofstra in the 252nd position overall, fourth from the last player picked in the 2006 draft. He was criticized for his lack of explosiveness coming out of a route. Also, some say that he had a hard time making defenders miss after the catch. Coming from a small school did not help Colston's prospects, either.

To be fair to Colston, most scouts thought he would convert to tight-end in the NFL because of his size and his 4.5 40 time being average for a receiver. Not many predicted that he would make it as a receiver in the pros. the concern for his lack of explosiveness is considered by some to be the top evaluation factor for wide receivers. The problem today is that many wide receivers working out in the combine and during pro days are plagued with the stigma of 40 times. For some reason, a players 40 time has become the high fashion. Many team owners and coaches, particularly Al Davis, are enamored with a receiver who can blaze down the field past defenders, i.e. Randy Moss, and make the long catch. Unfortunately, not all cornerbacks are as slow as some might things and not all receivers are as good of a "ball catcher on the run," either. For a wide receiver to be productive in the NFL, speed is important but not essential. Good route-running skills, explosiveness, and the ability to adjust to the ball in the air are far better qualities to have than track star sprinting toward the end zone. Obviously, defenses would adjust to constant bombs thrown toward the endzone and play their defensive backs deeper in the formation. In this situation, quarterbacks need receivers who can separate from defenders and "go up and get it" should they need to throw a ball into the middle of the field. Colston was mis-evaluated and showed that he could do all of the things necessary to be a starter.

Another last-round hero is T. J. Houshmandzadeh (pictured, right) of the Cincinnati Bengals. Houshmandzadeh was drafted 204th overall out of Oregon State. He now is the number two receiver behind Chad Johnson and has enjoyed three straight seasons with over 900 yards receiving. Another seventh-round receiver-done-good is Donald Driver of the Green Bay Packers. Driver was drafted 213th overall has had 4 1,000 yard seasons with the Packers as one of Brett Favre's go-to-guys. Drafted in the same round and year as Driver is Hunter Smith, punter for the Indianapolis Colts. Smith has been named a Pro Bowl alternate twice is considered one of the best punters in the NFL.

Alfonso Boone, DT, and Mike Green, SS, were formerly starting teammates with the Chicago Bears. Boone recently signed a contract with the Kansas City Chiefs to be one of their starting defensive tackles, while Green now plays for the Seattle Seahawks. Both were drafted as the last two picks overall in the 2000 draft.

As it can be seen, some players do slip through the cracks, be it because of scouts' prejudices, playing at a small school, or miscalculations. There are some late-round players that go on to have extraordinary and long careers in the NFL. While the tendency has been for receivers to be misdiagnosed come draft day, there have been other position players that have enjoyed great careers. This just goes to show...The experts aren't always right.

Picture of Marques Colston taken from happynews.com.

Picture of T. J. Houshmandzadeh taken from SportsIllustrated.com.

Revisiting the Detroit Dilemna

There have been some updates in the Detroit Dilemma over the past couple of weeks. It appears that Detroit could be looking to address different needs and not draft Calvin Johnson with the second overall pick in this year's draft. They have recently traded troublesome cornerback Dre Bly (pictured, right) to the Denver Broncos for fumbling running back Tatem Bell, offensive lineman George Foster, and a fifth-round pick.

By trading Bly, the Lions have addressed a couple of needs: They have a strong backfield in Bell and Kevin Jones; they fill a need at offensive tackle, and pick up an extra pick which they could use to bolster their defensive backfield with the absence of Bly. Previously, many mock drafts had projected the Lions to take highly-touted offensive tackle Joe Thomas with the second overall pick, but now that they have Foster, many have updated their mocks to show the Lions taking Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn.

Another thing to consider is that Detroit has also signed free agent T. J. Duckett, formerly of the Washington Redskins, to a one-year deal worth $1.5 million. With Duckett assuming the role as a short yardage and third-down back, it is conceivable that the Lions could switch Duckett to fullback and implement a one-two punch of Bell and Jones. Certainly, this would create many mismatches for defenses that should have Mike Martz licking his chops come gameday.

With the many offensive weapons in place, Martz/Marinelli/Millen could be looking to use the second overall pick to add depth to the offensive line, draft a franchise quarterback, or trade down and address holes at cornerback and other spots. Still, everyone has to be chomping at the bit when Detroit is on the clock and Calvin Johnson is available, because it looks as if Oakland will select JaMarcus Russell (below, right) with the first pick in the draft, especially after the outstanding combine performance and exceptional pro day he has had going into the draft. Russell's draft stock couldn't be higher.

He possesses the size and arm strength that Al Davis covets in the passing game as well as ability to make things happen with his legs. Although Brady Quinn (above, left) has had the benefit of being mentored by Notre Dame head coach Charlie Weiss, a former NFL offensive coordinator for the three-time Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, most scouts consider Russell to be the better prospect.

Photograph of Dre Bly taken from broncos.scout.com.
Photograph of Brady Quinn and JaMarcus Russell taken from ESPN.com.

Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate? Part III: The Truth

This is the final installment of the truth behind mock drafts: Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate? Part III: The Truth. In this post, I plan to take the results of Part II and reveal the truth behind mock draft accuracy. Here are some questions to consider:

1. How accurate can one predict the results of the draft?
2. Are the experts really experts?
3. From where do these mockers get their data?

To recap the results of the first round "mock-off," we find that Mel Kiper fell short of proving his mettle as the draft guru of the modern era. While his top ten choices have been very accurate, his crystal ball vision becomes clouded beyond this point. To not strictly pick on Mel Kiper, other mockers have fallen short of achieving supreme status as the Swami of draft day. Although most of the other mockers that I examined were more accurate than Kiper, they didn't show much esteem in regards to their overall accuracy. In fact, it is my opinion that most of them use Mel Kiper as a primary source, and then deviate by degree to secure their original stamp on their mocks.

I have noticed trends in some of the picks in the first and in the second round that indicate that they could be peaking at Kiper's draft sheet on test day. It seems highly unlikely that Winston Justice of USC going to the Philadelphia Eagles with the 14th pick, when, in fact, Philadelphia had just as much of a pressing need at other positions, especially with Terrell Owens forcing himself out of town because of his usual antics.

What I can conclude is this: There is no accurate way to predict the outcome of the draft. The evidence shows that mock drafters have a better success rate with the first ten picks, but after this point, they should let the outcome settle itself. Some teams have too many needs, but they don't always draft players according to their needs. Amongst other teams, the Chicago Bears GM, Jerry Angelou, has repeatedly said that they draft the best player on the board. Many teams like to address needs in free agency. Also, there are trades that occur on draft day, heck, they occur before and after, and this makes it almost impossible to predict with supreme accuracy where potential draftees will end up and with what team for which they will play.

All in all, there are just too many factors that can influence the outcome of the draft; however this does not stop mock drafters from developing their mocks, and it does not stop fans from reading them. To put it plainly, mocks drafts are not tools to predict the draft, they are forms of entertainment. They are just another creative way to pull more fans into professional football. They are a bridge that unites the pros with college sports--football, baseball, basketball, and hockey. It just so happens that the NFL and the NBA drafts are the most publicized. So, when the third weekend of April come around, leave your mock draft printouts at the computer desk, if you are looking for the Truth.

Six Degrees of Deion Sanders - March

Prime-Time, Prime Time...it's another installment of everybody's favorite game: "The Six Degrees of Deion Sanders. I've decided to go a bit further back into history to see if I can find a random player from a late round in an old draft. I am hoping this will pose more of a challenge than last month's attempt.

Since Deion arrived in the NFL in 1989, I will go back four more years to 1985 and choose a player that was drafted out of Deion's rival school from college. Deion attended Florida State, whose rival is the University of Miami.

A side note: It is interesting that rookie phenom Devin Hester of the Chicago Bears and former Miami Hurricane is the protegee of Deion Sanders.

Let's start the game. With the 206th pick in the eighth round of the 1985 draft, the New Orleans Saints select:

ILB, Joe Kohlbrand
University of Miami

1. Joe Kohlbrand played with the New Orleans Saints from 1985 to 1989. He did not play for any other team and retired in 1989 after a disappointing career. Kohlbrand helped fortify the front seven of the Saints along with fellow linebacker and Hall of Famer Ricky Jackson of Pittsburgh University.

2. Ricky Jackson spent the majority of his career with the Saints (1982-93) and a couple of years with the San Francisco 49ers (1994-95). In 1994, he helped the Niners win the Super Bowl, his only ring. A member of that championship defense that recorded an interception in the Super Bowl win over the San Diego Chargers was Deion Sanders.

3. With the third degree, we return to our old pal, Neon Deion.

Photograph of Deion Sanders taken from ostatus.com.

Are Mock Drafts Really Accurate? Part II: Data and Analysis

PART II: DATA AND ANALYSIS

When considering the question of whether mock drafts are an accurate prediction of the the way the NFL draft will play out, one must keep in mind that accuracy is the key. There are many factors to take into consideration when determining which player will be drafted by which team and when. One player's talent may project him over another player, but there are other factors, such as: injuries, NFL teams' needs, combine and pro day performances, college resume, and interview results. This can be so confusing that mock draft designers' prediction accuracy may suffer. Also, not every mocker has access to all of this information, which places sports writers at a considerable advantage.

The purpose of this study is to determine whether the experts are truly more accurate than the novice mockers and to discover exactly how accurate these mock drafts are in predicting the results of the draft. To save time and space, I am going to post links to each website and analyze sections of data.

I will be fair with draft analysts in my measure of their accuracy. Since there are hundreds of players drafted every year and each team determines what their needs are in the draft (not the writers and analysts), I will grant a three-position margin of error. What that means is that I will accept a prediction of a player's position in the draft within three picks of his actual draft position. It is true (as I stated above) that teams determine their own needs, but mock draft designers should be taking every possible scenario (within reason) into consideration when constructing their mock drafts.

I will grade predictions based upon first round results for all five candidates, and I will grade three candidate who chose to be more adventurous in creating a three round mock draft. I will examine the predictions of only last year's draft with the exception that I will test Mel Kiper's mocking accuracy over the last three years. The point assignment for each position prediction per the results will break down as follows:

4 pts = accurate prediction
3 pts = within 1 position
2 pts = within 2 positions
1 pt = within 3 positions

Considering that there are 32 teams (32 draft positions per round), there are 128 points possible for every round. Since teams trade out of positions, I will award half credit to those who pick the team's correct draft choice even though it is out of position in the order unless the original point value is higher. Unfortunately, since predicting a team's desire to trade up or down in the draft is almost impossible, mockers cannot be held too accountable.

The Round Accuracy Rating (RAR) is computing simply by dividing the mocker's amount of points accumulated by the total number of points available per round.

FIRST ROUND MOCK DRAFTS

Mel Kiper, Jr.

To begin with the "expert," Mel Kiper, Jr's mock draft on ESPN.com is considered the most reputable of all mock drafts. Mel's extensive experience with college football and the NFL draft has made him the premier draft analyst in football. Mel's last mock draft of 2006 posted a first round RAR of 29.69%. He scored a 38 points out of the possible 128.

DraftKing

Next, we come to DraftKing. The final mock draft of 2006 for DraftKing posted a RAR of 36.72%. The score was 47 points out of 128. This score was the second best of the five first round mock drafts rated.

NFL Draft Countdown

NFL Draft Countdown posted the best score of the five mocks. More accurate middle round projections boosted this site's score to 51 out of 128 for a RAR of 39.84%.

Football's Future

The site that tied with Mel Kiper in predicting the draft results is Football's Future. Along with Kiper, this site posted the second lowest score at 38 points with a RAR of 29.69%.

Sports Nutz

Sports Nutz posted the lowest score of the mocks at 37 of 128 for a RAR of 28.9%. Although this site is not backed by as reputable analysts as those from ESPN, they were only one point behind the great Mel Kiper, Jr.

THREE-ROUND MOCK DRAFTS

Mel Kiper, Jr.

For the 2006 NFL Draft, Mel Kiper constructed a four-round mock draft. For the purpose of this study, I am going to examine the results of only three rounds. As noted above, Kiper posted an RAR of 29.69% for the first round. In the second round, Kiper scored 12 of 128 possible points (9.38% RAR), and in the third round he scored 3 of a possible 132 (2.27% RAR). The third round included a compensatory pick allotted to the New York Jets at 97th overall.

NFL Draft Countdown

Draft Countdown, in the second round, scored 10 points of 128 (7.81% RAR), and in the third round, the site scored 6 of 132 points (4.54% RAR). Draft Countdown scored lower than Kiper in the second round but beat him out in the third round.

Football's Future

The final three-round mock draft to examine is Football's Future. In the second round, FF scored 5 of 128 points (3.9% RAR), and in the third round, they scored 9 of 132 points (6.82% RAR). FF had the best results in the third round but fell short with the worst second round.


Now that the results are in, I will use the third part of this examination to comment on similarities, differences, tendencies, etc. Stay tuned...